Best mean reversion stock screener (oversold bounce setups)
Mean-reversion screens buy weakness inside an uptrend: oversold RSI, closes below the lower Bollinger Band, multi-day selloffs and sharp weekly drops.
Test: 518 S&P 500 + Nasdaq-100 stocks, 2021-10-13 to 2026-10-12, each signal held 5 trading days. Hit rate = share of signals that closed higher 5 days later.
Ranked by 5-day hit rate
| # | Screen | Hit rate | Avg 5d | SPY 5d | Max DD | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI(14) Oversold Mean Reversion | 57.9% | +0.88% | +0.85% | -29.9% | 22,196 |
| 2 | 10% Weekly Drop Mean Reversion | 57.3% | +1.45% | +0.94% | -49.4% | 13,900 |
| 3 | Close Below Lower Bollinger Mean Reversion | 54.4% | +0.54% | +0.60% | -21.9% | 30,739 |
| 4 | RSI(2) Oversold Bounce Mean Reversion | 53.9% | +0.41% | +0.32% | -22.8% | 34,000 |
| 5 | Hammer at 20-Day Low Mean Reversion | 53.6% | +0.38% | +0.30% | -24.1% | 6,814 |
| 6 | Three Down Days Above 200 SMA Mean Reversion | 53.5% | +0.42% | +0.31% | -24.0% | 33,176 |
What to know
These screens look best in our backtest partly because of survivorship bias: we test today's index members, which by definition recovered. Real-world results would be lower.
Standard RSI(14) under 30.
Down 10%+ over 5 sessions.
Close under the lower BB(20,2).
Larry Connors setup: RSI(2) below 10 while above the 200 SMA.
Long lower wick (≥2× body) printing a new 20-day low, closes in top third.
Three consecutive lower closes in a long-term uptrend.
Copy-paste rules for every screen above, plus Daily Fire Picks: 1-3 highest-confidence setups emailed before the open. Educational, not advice.
FAQ
What are the best mean reversion screener?
In our 2021–2026 backtest, RSI(14) Oversold had the highest 5-day hit rate of this group at 57.9% over 22,196 signals. "Best" depends on your holding period and risk tolerance; compare drawdowns too.
Where are the exact settings?
The exact backtested thresholds and copy-paste TradingView, Finviz and ThinkorSwim versions are part of SetupHits Pro ($39/mo), delivered by email. The rankings and stats on this page are free.
Are these results realistic?
They are simulated on daily bars with no fees or slippage, on today's index members (survivorship bias). Treat them as a relative comparison, not a forecast.
More guides
Simulated results; no fees, slippage or taxes; survivorship-biased universe. Not financial advice. Methodology.